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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.